China’s metals and minerals sector in 2026 reflects a maturing industry amid shifting domestic demand, capacity controls, and global supply chain pressures. Crude steel output fell sharply in 2025 to 960.81 million metric tons, a 4.4% decline, marking a seven-year low below the 1 billion ton threshold due to weak real estate activity, though exports reached records. Aluminium production hit a record 45.02 million tons, exceeding the nominal 45 million ton cap amid strong green energy demand. Non-ferrous metals like copper, zinc, and lead face capacity cap recommendations to curb overexpansion and low margins, while rare earths and industrial minerals remain dominated by China with export restrictions heightening geopolitical risks. Overall, the sector shows resilience through efficiency gains, profitability improvements, and strategic focus on high-value and sustainable production.
China’s Metals, Minerals, and Steel Sector in 2026: Key Trends and Company Insights
China remains the undisputed global leader in metals and minerals production, but 2025 data and early 2026 indicators point to a transitional phase characterized by moderated growth, structural adjustments, and heightened focus on quality over quantity.
In the iron and steel segment, crude steel production in 2025 totaled 960.81 million metric tons, down 4.4% from the previous year, according to official statistics. This marked the lowest annual output since 2018 and the first time in recent years that production dipped below 1 billion tons. The decline stemmed primarily from prolonged weakness in the real estate sector, which has curtailed domestic demand for construction-grade steel. Pig iron output fell 3.0% to 836.04 million tons, while finished steel products rose modestly by 3.1% to 1.446 billion tons, reflecting some shift toward higher-value processing.
Analysts anticipate a further, though slower, decline in crude steel output for 2026, potentially around 3% based on forecasts from industry consultancies. This moderation aligns with policy efforts to control overcapacity, improve profitability, and reduce environmental impact. Despite softer domestic demand, steel exports surged to record levels in 2025, exceeding 119 million tons, as producers sought outlets abroad amid abundant supply.
Major players dominate the landscape. China Baowu Steel Group leads globally with massive scale and advanced capabilities in high-end products. Ansteel Group and HBIS Group follow closely, benefiting from integrated operations and regional strengths. These conglomerates have pursued consolidation, technological upgrades, and efficiency improvements to navigate the challenging environment.
| Rank | Company | Headquarters | Notable 2024/2025 Crude Steel Output (million tons, approximate) | Key Focus Areas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China Baowu Steel Group | Shanghai | ~130 | High-quality steel, innovation |
| 2 | Ansteel Group | Anshan, Liaoning | ~59-60 | Integrated production, exports |
| 3 | HBIS Group | Shijiazhuang | ~42 | Diverse products, international |
| – | Others (e.g., Shougang, Shagang) | Various | Varies | Regional strength, specialization |
The aluminium sector presents a contrasting picture of robust expansion. Primary aluminium output reached a record 45.02 million tons in 2025, up 2.4% year-over-year, surpassing the long-standing 45 million ton annual capacity cap. This overage highlights high utilization rates driven by demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles, and power infrastructure. December 2025 alone saw 3.87 million tons produced, a monthly peak. With the cap loosely enforced and new renewable-powered projects emerging, capacity could expand modestly through 2028, though global surpluses remain a risk if demand growth lags.
Non-ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, lead, and others, experienced mixed dynamics. The industry achieved significant profitability gains in 2025, with total profits hitting historical highs amid elevated metal prices. However, rapid smelter capacity expansion outpaced raw material availability, compressing treatment and refining charges and prompting recommendations for capacity ceilings similar to aluminium’s model. Government initiatives target breakthroughs in exploration for key minerals like copper, lithium, nickel, and tin, while promoting secondary metals production to exceed 20 million tons annually.
Industrial minerals, particularly rare earth elements, underscore China’s strategic dominance. The country controls the majority of global mining (around 60-70%) and processing (over 90%), with near-monopolies in heavy rare earths essential for magnets, defense, and clean tech. Export licensing and restrictions implemented in recent years have tightened supply for certain elements, amplifying geopolitical tensions and encouraging diversification efforts elsewhere. These controls persist as leverage in international trade discussions.
Broader sector trends in 2026 include improved operational efficiency, with more steel mills achieving profitability through cost controls and product upgrades. The non-ferrous segment benefits from high-level price support and policy plans for stabilized growth through 2026. Challenges persist from downstream pressures, trade uncertainties, and the need for greener production amid global decarbonization demands.
This database overview captures the evolving intelligence on China’s vast metals, minerals, and steel ecosystem, highlighting leading companies, production metrics, and strategic directions for informed decision-making in a dynamic market.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Market conditions can change rapidly; readers should conduct their own due diligence.